사용자:Gaepakchinae/연습장/블랙 스완 (서적)

블랙 스완
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

파일:The black swan taleb cover.jpg 하드백 초판
나라	미국
언어	영어
장르	논픽션
주제	과학철학, 무작위성, 인식론
출판사	랜덤하우스 (미국), 앨런 레인(en:Allen Lane) (영국)
발행일	2007년 4월 17일 (원서)
ISBN	978-1400063512
OCLC번호	71833470
시리즈	인세르토
이전 작품	행운에 속지 마라
다음 작품	프로크루스테스의 침대

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events — and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.

The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, as well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. The book spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list.

The book is part of Taleb's five volume series, titled the Incerto including Fooled by Randomness (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).

Coping with Black Swan events 블랙 스완 사건과 함께하기

A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models.

The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer, e.g., what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".

요약

저자는 본서가 단 하나의 발상에 대한 수필이나 이야기라고 말했다: "무작위성, 특히 편차가 큰 무작위성에 대한 우리들의 맹목성"

The book moves from literary subjects in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects in the later portions. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. Taleb addresses science and business in the latter half of Part Two and Part Three. Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life.

Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book. He uses an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the "unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti."

There is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.... You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read.

파트 1: 움베르토 에코의 반도서관, 혹은 우리가 어떻게 입증을 추구하는가 Umberto Eco's anti-library, or how we seek validation

첫 번째 챕터에서, 블랙 스완 이론은 저자의 에 엮어 처음으로 논해진다.In the first chapter, the Black Swan theory is first discussed in relation to Taleb's coming of age in the Levant. 저자는 그러고는 그의 접근 방식을 역사적인 분석으로 설명한다. 그는 역사를 불투명한, 본질적으로 원인과 효과를 알 수 없는 검은 상자로 묘사한다.The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Opacity.

The second chapter discusses a neuroscientist named Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova and her book A Story of Recursion. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Yevgenia became famous. This incident is described as a Black Swan event.

The book goes on to admit that the so-called author is a work of fiction. Yevgenia rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction. She also hates the very idea of forcing things into well defined "categories", holding that the world generally is complex and not easy to define. Though female, the character is based, in part, autobiographically on the author (according to Taleb), who has many of the same traits.

The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He uses them as guides to define how predictable the environment one's studying is. Mediocristan environments safely can use Gaussian distribution. In Extremistan environments, a Gaussian distribution should be used at one's own peril.

Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier, into a narrative about a turkey. Taleb uses it to illustrate the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance. He then takes the reader into the history of skepticism.

In chapter nine, Taleb outlines the multiple topics he previously has described and connects them as a single basic idea.

In chapter thirteen, the book discusses what can be done regarding epistemic arrogance. He recommends avoiding unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions, while being less cautious with smaller matters, such as going to a picnic. He makes a distinction between the American cultural perception of failure versus European and Asian stigma and embarrassment regarding failure: the latter is more tolerable for people taking small risks. He also describes the "barbell strategy" for investment he used as a trader, which consists in avoiding medium risk investments and putting 85–90% of money in the safest instruments available and the remaining 10–15% on extremely speculative bets.

논점

The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that "a good person is as rare as a black swan" ("rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno", 6.165). It was a common expression in 16th century London, as a statement that describes impossibility, deriving from the old world presumption that 'all swans must be white', because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers. Thus, the black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the improbable. Aristotle's "Prior Analytics" is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates "white", "black", and "swan." More specifically, Aristotle uses the white swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan as improbable. This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning; however, neither form of reasoning is infallible, since in inductive reasoning, the premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but do not ensure it, and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. That is, a false premise may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. The limits of the argument behind "all swans are white" is exposed—it merely is based on the limits of experience (e.g., that every swan one has seen, heard, or read about is white). The point of this metaphor is that all known swans were white until the discovery of black swans in Australia. Hume's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge.

반응

수학 교수 David Aldous는 "Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise."라고 논했다. Gregg Easterbrook wrote a critical review of The Black Swan in the New York Times to which Taleb replied with a list of logical errors, blaming Easterbrook for not having read the book. Giles Foden, writing for The Guardian in 2007, described the book as insightful, but facetiously written, saying that Nassim's "dumbed-down" style was a central problem, especially in comparison to Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

노벨상을 수상한 심리학자 대니얼 카너먼은 "The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works"을 썼으며, 2011년에 출간한 그의 서적 Thinking, Fast and Slow 에서 그 영향을 설명한다.

2007년에 초판이 출간된 이래로, 2011년 2월까지 거의 3백만 부가 팔렸다. 뉴욕 타임스 베스트셀러 목록에 36주 동안 머물러있었는데, 17주는 하드커버, 19주는 페이퍼백 판본이 머물러있었다. 32개 언어로 출간되었다.

참고문서

• 반취약성
• 양부음술(en:Apophasis)
• 중입자 비대칭
• 브누아 망델브로
• 흑고니 상징과 대중문화(:en:Black swan emblems and popular culture)
• 인지 편향
• 확증 편향
• 효율적 시장 가설
• 반증가능성
• 착각적 상관(:en:Illusory correlation)
• 큰까마귀 패러독스(:en:Raven paradox)
• 섹스투스 엠피리쿠스

주석

• Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007), 《The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable》, Random House, ISBN 978-1400063512 

외부 링크

• Author's website
• Black Swan Glossary
• Slideshow lecture explaining the Ludic Fallacy with clarity By Peter Taylor of Oxford University.
• Nassim Taleb podcast interview on The Black Swan.
• YouTube Video Explanation
• Will Davies (2007) 'All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns', review of The Black Swan in the Oxonian Review.
• After Words interview with Taleb on The Black Swan, September 22, 2007

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